Business

How many people will lose their jobs?

For a long time, people in Germany didn't have to fear as much for their jobs as they do now. More and more companies are registering short-time work. Some lay off first employees and stop any new hires. An overview.

How many have already lost their jobs?

The slump in the economy is not yet reflected in the labor market figures. The Federal Employment Agency (BA) registered in March 2, 34 million unemployed. These are 60 000 less than in February, but 34 000 more than a year ago, the authority said. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 points to 5.1 percent. It is just as high as last year. However: The data were up to 12. March raised. They cannot yet reflect the drastic limitations of public life.

How many unemployed could there be?

Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) is clear that not everyone will keep his job. Nevertheless, he again campaigned for confidence. “We have one of the strongest welfare states in the world and we have built up reserves for difficult times in good times,” he said at a conference with Detlef Scheele, CEO of the Federal Employment Agency. Scheele leaves on the next counting day (12. April) from 150 000 to 200 000 more people out of work. It can already be seen that layoffs in the catering and tourism sectors are inevitable. There, many companies did not have sufficient reserves to keep their employees.

The Expert Council expects that a shutdown of five weeks 125 000 jobs should cost. This would raise the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent. Other economists believe that the corona crisis will have far more devastating effects on the job market. The Ifo Institute predicts that after just one month standstill between 160 000 and 340 000 jobs subject to social security will be lost. According to the calculations, there would be again between 180 000 and 390 000 Mini jobs. With a three-month shutdown, 1.8 million jobs and up to 780 000 Mini jobs to be deleted.

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How many companies register short-time work?

The short-time work, with which empty order books and forced closings can be bridged, provides first indications of the burden on companies . Working hours are temporarily reduced. Accordingly, this means less wages, which is however partially replaced by the Federal Employment Agency. Affected people receive up to 60 percent of lost net wages if they have children up to 67 percent. The legislator wants to prevent layoffs.

Since the outbreak of the corona crisis, 470 000 Ads from companies received. The increase is “rapid,” said Scheele. In an ordinary month of last year, there were 1300 ads. He doesn't know how many people are behind company reports. That would only be clear in a few weeks when the companies settled with the authority. BMW ran short for March 20 000 employee logged on. The retailer Ceconomy has just as many employees with its chains Media Markt and Saturn.

The federal government expects up to 2.3 million employees in the future that could be affected. The previous record in the wake of the financial crisis was 1.4 million in May 2009. According to the Ifo Institute, up to 3.9 million people could make a living from short-time benefits in a one-month shutdown. If the economy stands still for three months, the companies could impose breaks on up to 6.6 million people.

What is currently still debated? Companies also want to send trainees on short-time work. Unions warn against this because young people would then have far less money than they already would. Heil understands this, but warns even more about layoffs. It was “not a good idea” to terminate training contracts. “After the crisis, we will urgently need these specialists.”

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What does short-time work cost?

The Federal Employment Agency cannot yet calculate the cost of short-time work. What Scheele could say: 100 000 Short-time workers cost in the event of a failure of 50 Percent around 79 million euros per month. His authority initially plans to spend ten billion euros on short-time work benefits and reimbursement of social security contributions to employers. It can draw on its reserves of 26 billion euros. This would also have to be financed if the crisis lasted longer. There is no financial limit, said CEO Detlef Scheele. Hubertus Heil sees no reason to raise the unemployment insurance contribution rate: “There is currently no reason to speculate about higher contributions.”

What if the living wages are not enough?

To increase the short-time allowance, Heil referred to the loosened ones Additional earning opportunities. An example: A laundry has to close, but helpers are needed in a hospital. If you want, you could earn as much money until you reach 100 percent of your original salary. Doctors who return from retirement for a while should also receive money without drawing less pension.

Heil also said: Anyone who has to apply for basic security now should not be ashamed of it. This also applies to those people who, despite working, need money from the job center. From Wednesday, everyone can apply for the “social citizen insurance” with a simpler form. The state assumes housing and heating costs without a prior property check. For example, a showman doesn't have to fear for his carousel, explained Heil.

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